Just as I was sitting down to write this article this morning, the monthly CPI numbers were released.
CPI — or consumer price index — is, of course, the prime way that the Fed, the news media, and the politician class present inflation to us unwashed masses. (Note the use of the word present rather than measure.)
The CPI reading came in cooler than expected. For the month of October, inflation only rose 3.2% — far below the 4% expectation. Of course, the Wall Street Journal immediately started peddling the regime propaganda:
And the markets are ripping on the news that the Fed may soon proclaim “Mission Accomplished!” and pause or even reverse the rate hikes. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 are both up more than 2% this week.
A lot of bears will be sleeping out in the cold tonight, it seems.
And if you were one of them, it might be time to look in the mirror, inhale deeply, and say, “Stop!” Because you’re fighting a losing battle. The bottom line is the powers that be simply won’t let the markets crash. At least they won’t let it crash before next year’s election. And if you sit on the sidelines, waiting for the crash, you’re going to miss out on one heck of a bull run.
Not that I’m not saying you have to believe that everything is hunky dory with the American economy. In fact, if you look deeper into the data, a disease is very obviously spreading across our monetary system.
Last week, the U.S. Treasury auction failed. The government tried to raise $24 billion by selling 30-year treasury bonds. Yet they were only able to sell 3/4 of them before demand tapped out and buyers started demanding higher interest rates.
Over the weekend, Moody’s downgraded the outlook on our Sovereign Credit Rating from “Neutral” to “Negative.”
Meanwhile, the domestic freight market is cratering. Freight may be one of the most direct signals of economic vitality in a consumer economy. After all, trucks have to transport the goods that we consume. But right now, freight is seeing a worse fall off than it did during the Global Financial Crisis. And there’s no end in sight.
Even inflation — which the Fed and its media allies are all saying is pretty much over — is still rising. Just not as much as it was in prior months. When the headlines (like the one above) say that inflation is falling, it doesn’t mean that absolute inflation is going down.
It just means that it’s not rising as fast. Therein lies the presentation aspect of government-sponsored economic data. They would have you believe that once again, centralized government policies have saved the day. When, in fact, they’ve only succeeded in slightly ameliorating a problem that they themselves created.
But me and you, we’re just regular people. Even though we may see what’s going on under the surface, we as individuals have little power (read: no power) to affect these larger trends. Sure, we could scream that the markets are wrong, but what good will that do us?
Even if the economy is fundamentally unsound, the main bellwether of economic vitality in most peoples’ minds is the stock market. So, even if the world is falling to pieces around us, the regime will ensure that those little green candlesticks keep popping up on our screens.
At least, they’ll keep doing it long enough to help themselves secure victory in the 2024 election after that, or if they get defeated, who knows? But until then, don’t invest in the truth. Invest in reality.
To your wealth,
Alex Reid
